Don’t Know Where We’re Goin’, Sure Know Where We’ve Been…And Here We Go Again – It’s 2013!

No, I don’t know where I’m going
But, I sure know where I’ve been

There is in fact very little doubt as to where we all have been on this treacherous journey through the rebuilding of a devastated construction industry.

Hanging on the promises
In songs of yesterday

Promises, promises, promises, from politicians, business leaders, employers, you name it….

And I’ve made up my mind
I ain’t wasting no more time

Sing it Whitesnake!  Let’s not waste any more time.  Let’s get this thing moving now!  And I mean right now.  Yeah, like in 2013.  Let’s go overboard on hairspray and bring back Tawny Kitaen , etc, because we are busting out of this thing and nothing can stop us now.

And here I go again….On my own

Just as the “hair band” Whitesnake (yes – one word!) sang it back in 1987.  And here WE go again, into another year of a struggling (but evidently recovering) construction industry.

Ironically (or possibly coincidentally), in 1987, along with Whitesnake’s “Here I Go Again” hitting #1 in the US, UK, and Canada, Congress was passing funding for the “Big Dig” in Boston which basically put the city’s main highway artery underground.  The public works bill to throw federal dollars at the Big Dig was actually vetoed by Ronald Reagan but subsequently overturned by Congress.  This gave the green light on the most expensive highway project in US history.  Original budgets for the project were in the range of $6 billion (adjusted for inflation of course) and the final pricetag came in around $14.5 billion.  The Boston Globe at one time estimated the cost of the project at $22 billion including interest.  And of course we shouldn’t forget that the project was originally scheduled to be completed in 1998 but was eventually finished in 2007.  This is not to take anything away from the project because it was quite an amazing undertaking and from what I have heard and read, it greatly reduced traffic and congestion problems in Boston.

But regardless, or hell, irregardless, I’m with ya Whitesnake!  Let’s take matters into our own hands and get this thing moving.  However, we may not have to do it alone.  From what I’ve read and heard (all credible sources, I swear), the industry is steadily improving.  Part of this comes from what I’ve seen put out by the American Institute of Architects.

Famed baseball manager Casey Stengel once said, “Never make predictions, especially about the future.”

However, with this advice taken, we need to acknowledge that looking at architectural billings is about as close as we will ever get to looking into a crystal ball.  And while it may not be a 100% accurate prediction of the future, we can at least feel like we have a grip on what is going to occur.  And sometimes, thinking you know what is going on is just as good (if not better) than actually knowing.

The AIA puts out what they call the Architectural Billings Index.  Their latest report showed the strongest growth in nearly two years.  Construction tends to lag the architectural billings by several months, but this is at least good news for us construction folks.

I also looked at some information put out by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The below graph shows construction unemployment over time for about the past ten years.  It clearly shows a peak in 2010.  But then shows a steady decline over the next two years.  We can at least make an educated guess that this trend of lower unemployment will continue through the coming year.

If you are at all curious about why this graph look like one of those heart rate things you see on Grey’s Anatomy (I think they have them in hospitals too), it is because construction unemployment spikes in December and January due to seasonal lay-offs….just in time to catch the majority of the new episodes of Grey’s Anatomy.

So with some help from the “natural” cycles of the economy we can pull this thing out of the trenches.  Of course, with a little help from our friendly banking system, we could really take off, but evidently they play by their rules and their own self interested agenda….

So be it, because we ain’t wastin’ no more time, and (damn-it) we’ve made up our mind. So….

Here we go again…On our own!