We Started From The Bottom Now We’re Here, But Not Quite There

In honor of my move in to the City of Philadelphia from the suburbs in 2013, I decided to select a rap song as the theme song for 2014.  I’ve heard more rap music in the past 8 months than I have in my entire life, so I’ve been able to brush up on some of the tunes circulating the rap world.  “Started from the Bottom” by Drake hit home because it parallels nicely with our little situation in the construction industry.

About four years ago, we clearly started from the bottom with an industry unemployment rate of over 25% in the beginning of 2010 according the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.  As of November 2013, the industry unemployment rate stood at 8.3%.  This will undoubtedly jump for December and January due to seasonal lay-offs, but for comparison’s sake, the November 2009 rate was at 19.4%.  So we started from the bottom, now we’re here, but we’re still not there.

So how will we know when we’re there?  Well, put it this way, in October 2006 the industry unemployment rate bottomed out at 4.5% (this is actually bottom in a good way).  Once we get back to this we will be there, but in the meantime, we’re here.  But here really isn’t that bad and it’s quite a bit better than where we were, especially in the beginning of 2010.  Additionally, there is some reason to believe that we may in fact get there.

But regardless of where we are, where we were, or whether we’re here or there, we need a place to go to try to figure out may may be in our future.  And where do we go to see where we may be going when it comes to construction work in this country?  Well, we go to the AIA architecture billing index.  Where else?

The AIA architecture billing index grew in every month except for one over the past 12 months.  Since construction billings will lag architectural billings by about 9-12 months, the AIA architectural billing index gives us a feeling of knowing roughly what is going to occur when it comes to construction since architectural drawings are typically done with the intention of eventually building them.

Residential architectural billings was the big winner in 2013, especially in the beginning of the year.  However, commercial made a nice push in the later part of 2013 with increases every month after April.  This should, in theory, turn into construction work in 2014.  And for companies that specialize in commercial work (like mine), this is very much needed.

But billings are one thing and jobs are another.  Since I tend to take a more holistic look at things, I’m more interested in jobs.  Billings can go up all they want, but if the money is just going into the pockets of the people currently working then, in my mind, it’s not as beneficial as it could be.  However, with the steady decrease in unemployment over the past few years along with the increase in billings, I’m fairly confident that in this case, jobs are going to be a part of the whole thing – but that’s just me.

If I were a guy, like say, Drake.  I’d probably be pushin’ for much more.  I mean, why not?  The guy popularized the term YOLO for God’s sake!  Not only that, after dropping out of high school, he eventually went back and got his diploma at the age of 26 after he was clearly a successful artist.  That’s pretty cool Drake.

While Drake may be correct in stating that, “You Only Live Once”, this once in a lifetime experience on Earth is much less pleasant and fulfilling without gainful employment.  Since we all chose to work in the construction industry perhaps because we like it and we want to make a difference in the world in which we live, I think we can all agree that we need to get everyone working again and keep it there.  So while we started from the bottom and now we’re here, going back to the bottom just can’t be an option.

While we did in fact start from the bottom, now we need to go from here to there, and then remain somewhere in between the two – forever.  Why?  Because you only live once….Just ask Drake.